Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 95624.315391 100803.343531 105978.390103 111534.016287 117325.870964 123182.459813 129548.589961
2025-10-05 87824.337750 95802.806108 103993.928502 113021.384449 122680.625740 132695.238033 143852.416020
2025-10-12 82306.969458 92240.768757 102658.295062 114375.987988 127166.840645 140683.122628 156023.454998
2025-10-19 77690.286308 89070.263686 101218.955154 115117.665583 130541.554025 147096.160854 166170.246838
2025-10-26 73544.537382 86030.071332 99569.775114 115291.328270 132989.680599 152242.489235 174713.925088
2025-11-02 70205.669103 83626.765594 98387.587827 115755.456559 135557.057881 157354.683857 183086.424157
2025-11-09 67012.627905 81180.805558 96968.220064 115772.098750 137462.043490 161597.850912 190384.439083
2025-11-16 64886.492868 79823.954324 96667.579986 116952.276120 140596.921492 167163.944827 199142.444463
2025-11-23 62248.338132 77731.322901 95392.183237 116888.640803 142199.002056 170901.882083 205754.274216
2025-11-30 60776.227047 76932.104967 95554.011391 118439.227579 145629.570306 176720.979731 214768.992062
2025-12-07 59139.244177 75852.290821 95311.766341 119448.501779 148375.353597 181715.011982 222817.834262
2025-12-14 57114.629494 74217.258544 94329.836543 119504.696571 149932.986710 185274.972655 229161.818254
2025-12-21 55220.017622 72692.855409 93445.159876 119655.517035 151601.440265 188988.363420 235743.337430
2025-12-28 54303.555078 72339.480208 93954.701109 121478.894591 155280.965810 195111.406978 245239.186399
2026-01-04 53287.446762 71815.647385 94217.525586 122971.303365 158543.679983 200738.156652 254167.159235
2026-01-11 51999.504349 70897.864301 93948.938509 123770.619750 160933.167982 205302.194713 261823.998508
2026-01-18 50495.471676 69651.404810 93222.539473 123957.629423 162535.359335 208891.832557 268297.009548
2026-01-25 49218.023245 68652.233269 92768.064975 124450.729856 164491.978679 212902.854903 275290.913245
2026-02-01 47792.055754 67413.544949 91967.615857 124468.522925 165825.027465 216130.378521 281321.254518
2026-02-08 46989.303665 66963.600102 92152.076786 125720.768351 168701.229354 221269.794528 289736.322407
2026-02-15 45651.632707 65764.117469 91332.977858 125653.258776 169881.575876 224287.237910 295517.667210
2026-02-22 45108.191472 65604.990137 91849.180064 127298.300434 173241.603995 230040.920640 304745.201264
2026-03-01 44351.262740 65132.903579 91935.110222 128368.931270 175859.593209 234868.609355 312835.194850